The blue economy in EU coastal regions: sectoral composition and structural challenges

Abstract

The Blue Economy is becoming an increasingly vital component of regional development strategies, offering the potential to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. It is viewed not only as a source of employment and value creation, but also as a platform for long-term environmental sustainability and innovation. While the Blue Economy integrates social, environmental, and economic dimensions, this study focuses on its contribution to regional economic development in EU coastal countries. Although coastal regions benefit from direct access to marine resources, the scale, structure, and effectiveness of Blue Economy contributions vary significantly across Member States. Acknowledging this heterogeneity, the study examines whether countries with different structural profiles exhibit signs of balanced or at-risk Blue Economies. The analysis draws on secondary data from the European Commission’s Blue Indicators Tool for the period 2009–2021, focusing on gross value added (GVA) and employment. These indicators are used to calculate growth rates and structural indices, including the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), Labour Intensity in Manufacturing Index (LIMI), and Relative Regional Specialization Index (RRSI). Using quartile thresholds and quadrant analysis, countries are classified according to their sectoral concentration, labour intensity, and regional advantages. Findings show that the Blue Economy has a divergent impact on regional development. Countries with labour-intensive, tourism-dominated economies—such as Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Greece, and France—demonstrate declining trends in both GVA and employment. These at-risk economies are highly exposed to demand fluctuations and structural inefficiencies. Moreover, even where economic performance improves, labour involvement is declining due to the automation of services such as tourism. In contrast, balanced economies such as Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Lithuania, Romania, and Belgium show more diversified sectoral structures, lower labour intensity, and stronger regional advantages. Their Blue Economies are more resilient to shocks and better aligned with digital and innovation-driven transformation. Capital-intensive sectors like shipbuilding, maritime transport, and ocean energy are particularly associated with employment stability and productivity growth. Importantly, the analysis confirms that recent changes in employment dynamics are not directly linked to the COVID-19 crisis or its recovery phase. Instead, the underlying driver is the acceleration of automation and digitalization, which the pandemic only reinforced, particularly in labour-intensive service sectors. While this study is limited to the economic dimension, it acknowledges the crucial role of social and environmental aspects, such as wellbeing, inclusion, and the ecological health of marine and coastal ecosystems. These will be addressed in the subsequent phase of the research.